By Saeed Qureshi
Five
governments in Pakistan were changed either by street agitations or through military
intervention. The first was headed by Ayub Khan, the second by Zulfikar Ali
Bhutto, the third was the first PMLN government (1993-1996), the fourth was the
second PMNL government (1997-1999) and the fifth that of Pervez Musharraf. The incumbent PMLN government may be the sixth
one but the chances of its unceremonious send off seem to be slim.
The reasons for such an assessment are that Imran Khan is not
a Bhutto and his appeal is limited to a section of the population, second the
ground realities are different now, and third that PMLN is a duly elected
government and supported by second largest party PPP. However, the perpetual
chaos and continual turmoil may prompt army to step in.
Ayub Khan captured power through a military coup. As a result
of the popular uprising launched by ZAB, Field Marshall Ayub Khan bowed out of
power in March 1969 after a decade’s autocratic governance. But he bequeathed a
legacy of economic vibrancy for Pakistan. The Tashkent pact signed with India
after 1965 war turned out to be his bĂȘte noir and the nation accused Ayub Khan
of watering down the boons of war that the army and the nation fought in
unison.
One could recall in the hindsight the intensity of emotions
and the fervor and a bubbling spirit of patriotism and sacrifice in those days
of war with India in September1965. The Tashkent agreement was profitably and
deftly exploited by ZAB who was his foreign minister but had parted company
with him to launch a countywide vilification campaign for his ouster. ZAB was a
charismatic figure and knew the art of rhetorical outbursts and soon he became
a darling and most lovable revolutionary leader of the entire nation.
He knew the art of mobilizing a subdued nation and truly that
was the ripest moment for a phenomenal change that the Pakistani nation was
yearning for long. The Tashkent declaration worked like fuel on the fire. On December 18,
1971, Bhutto was taken to the President House in Rawalpindi where he took over
two highest positions from Yahya Khan: one as the President and the other as
the Chief Martial Law Administrator. Thus he was the first civilian Chief
Martial Law Administrator of the dismembered Pakistan. That was the most glorious moment
for ZAB.
But unfortunately he became obsessive and so much power drunk
that he started sacrificing his secular, liberal, socialist and democratic
credentials at the altar of power. After the PNA movements in 1976 against the
alleged rigged elections, he abandoned all his cosmopolitan principles and
accepted all the conditions of the PNA. Pakistan from that moment turned into a
conservative and orthodox Islamic state with curbs of religious freedom of the
minorities, ban on production and use of liquor that amounted to the
curtailment of civil liberties.
But his volte face did not rescue him from the inevitable
fate of a betrayer of his conscience, creed and principles. The PNA after
getting all their demands accepted and made part of the constitution, still
kept him on the tenterhooks that culminated in the proclamation of Martial law
by Ziaul Haq and the rest is history. He was sent to gallows for a
controversial murder case.
Pakistan came under a brutal dictatorship of General Ziaul
Haq who ruled Pakistan with an iron hand. He suppressed all dissent, curbed
calls for democracy and human rights with full might of the state. He was the
one in whose time even journalists were lashed. General Zia’s one plus point is
that he spearheaded a crusade against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and
succeeded in throwing them out of that perennially bedeviled country. But he
too was killed in the mysterious helicopter crash. It is still not known who
was behind that plot.
The political parties that ruled the roost in Pakistan have
been showing scant interest in the welfare of Pakistan and its consolidation.
The four governments (two each) of PPP and PMLN were kind of family-centric and
thus Pakistan remained a country to be fleeced and bankrupted by the vested
interest by these ruling cabals.
In the first PMNL government that lasted for barely three
years, Nawaz Sharif had to resign under military pressure. The Nawaz Sharif’s
second government (1997-1999) remained locked in a confrontation with judiciary
and army. Nawaz Sharif was deposed through
a military coup by General Musharraf On October
13, 1999.
However since his return to Pakistan in December 2007 from
long exile, Nawaz Sharif has been supporting democracy and kept extending
cooperation to PPP to complete its five years constitutional tenure.
Of late, Imran Khan has emerged as a formidable political
contender of Nawaz Sharif and the ongoing standoff between the PMLN and PTI led
has been swelling beyond conjectures. Imran Khan has portrayed himself to be an
obdurate and inflexible rival who doesn’t seem to be in a mind frame to patch
up with Sharif. His demand is the ouster and trial of Nawaz Sharif and his
brother Shahbaz Sharif.
This irreconcilable attitude from Imran Khan and his
mobilization of the country’s youth and disgruntled sections had created an
unprecedented prolonged rally in the federal capital. But overall Imran Khan
doesn’t enjoy the support of the majority of the people of Pakistan. He can
keep demonstrating in Islamabad and other cities of Pakistan indefinitely but
there should be an end to this French style revolution call.
Imran is trying to knock down the political edifice by
forcing Sharif and PMLN out of power. The insistence on this demand through
violence and show of street force may finally impel the armed forces to step in
to disengage both the sides and take the country back to another prolonged and
indefinite martial law. If that happens, it would be the fourth time in
Pakistan of the ouster of a government through military take-over.
Even if Imran Khan
succeeds in forcible ouster of the PMNL from power then what next? Will he like
the traditional revolutionaries walk into the prime minister or president house
and start issuing orders? Still he will have to gain power through the votes of
the people.
Will he without any constitutional authority force his
dictations? Would the other political parties keep watching him doing all these
things with folded hands? Would there not be a political vacuum of governance?
It is not difficult to fathom which power will fill that vacuum. It would be
then fourth military rule in Pakistan. As for interim government to hold
midterm elections, it is doubtful that the other parties would agree to this
demand.
The writer is a senior journalist, former
editor of Diplomatic Times and a former diplomat. This and other
articles by the writer can also be read at his blog www.uprightopinion.com.